Record Spending Defines 2026 Midterms in Texas and the South

The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be the most expensive in history, a trend that is particularly visible in Texas and the South Central states. The Associated Press reports that Republican committees have outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts, a financial advantage bolstered by Trump-affiliated groups and significant contributions from Elon Musk. This spending surge is part of a broader effort to protect the Republican majority in the Senate and potentially hold the House, despite the traditional midterm pattern that sees the president's party lose seats.

In Texas, where polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., voters are deciding the fate of the open Senate seat and the governorship currently held by Greg Abbott. The AP notes that the race for the Senate seat features Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who received Trump's endorsement over incumbent John Cornyn in the primary, against Democrat James Talarico. The financial dynamics in this race reflect the national trend, with heavy advertising campaigns targeting voters who are grappling with high prices and an unpopular war with Iran.

A detailed analysis of AdImpact data by the Associated Press reveals that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending has gone to states and districts that Donald Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million in spending in areas where he won by 10 points or more. This strategy aims to consolidate support in key red states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, where the cost of living and health care are top concerns for voters. The high volume of advertising is intended to turn out the Republican base, a goal emphasized by RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, who stated that everything depends on turnout.

Despite the committee-level advantage for Republicans, Democrats have managed to outraise their opponents at the candidate level. This shift in funding dynamics is notable in the South Central region, where Democratic candidates are focusing on the cost of living and oversight of the administration. In Oklahoma, where polls are also open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., voters face an open Senate race and an open governor's race. The competitive nature of these races is highlighted by the significant ad spending in the region, which is part of the broader effort to flip control of one or both chambers of Congress.

In Louisiana, where polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Tuesday, the focus is on the open Senate seat. The state's election administration has been affected by the federal judge's order that temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting. This legal battle, along with the administration's suit in Alaska, has raised concerns among Democrats about potential interference and intimidation of local election officials. The U.S. Postal Service has added hours and staff to ensure mail ballots are counted on time, a measure that is crucial in states like Louisiana where mail voting is a significant component of the election.

In Arkansas, where polls are open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., voters are deciding the fate of the Senate seat held by incumbent Tom Cotton and the governorship held by Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The AP describes the election as a referendum on Trump's second term, with voters struggling with high prices and angry over the war with Iran. The AP-NORC polling shows that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while about seven in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most blame him for high prices, a sentiment that is resonating with voters in Arkansas and the surrounding region.

The financial edge for Republican committees is part of a broader strategy to beat the midterm pattern with redistricting. Six states, including Texas, are using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting. The AP notes that while Republicans tried to use these new districts to their advantage, the new maps may not vote as drawn. In Texas, the new map includes several competitive districts that could be decided by a narrow margin. The high cost of the election is a reflection of the stakes involved, with Democrats needing a net gain of three districts in the House and four seats in the Senate to achieve a majority.

The mood among voters in the South Central states is one of caution and frustration. Voter James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, said he is paying more taxes and more for his healthcare and everything else. This sentiment is echoed by voters in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, who are watching closely as the results of the election will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of Trump's term. The Associated Press reports that Democrats are cautiously optimistic, while Republicans are bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate.

The election is also being watched by Wall Street, with Reuters noting that results could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The high cost of the election and the potential for a split government or a strong Republican majority could have significant implications for the economy. The AP says that if Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight, which he would implement if he becomes the first Black speaker of the House.