Voters in Texas and the South Central weigh cost of living against Iran war

Voters across the South Central United States began casting ballots early Tuesday morning, with polls opening at 7 a.m. in Texas and Oklahoma, 7:30 a.m. in Arkansas, and 6 a.m. in Louisiana. These states are pivotal to the national midterm election, which will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. The Associated Press describes the day's contest as a referendum on the administration, noting that voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran.

In Texas, the race for the U.S. Senate is a focal point for Democrats seeking to gain control of the chamber. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom President Trump endorsed over incumbent Senator John Cornyn during the primary, faces Democratic challenger James Talarico. The state's Senate race is considered a battleground, with the state having voted for Trump by a margin of 13.6 points in 2024. In the governor's race, incumbent Greg Abbott faces a competitive challenge, as the Associated Press identifies Texas as one of three competitive governor races alongside Florida and Iowa.

Oklahoma voters are selecting a new governor and filling an open Senate seat. The state's polls close at 7 p.m. local time. While the specific candidates are not detailed in the primary national coverage, the open Senate seat adds to the number of races where Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats. The outcome in Oklahoma will contribute to the calculation of whether the party of the president can withstand the traditional midterm losses.

Arkansas presents a different dynamic, with incumbent Senator Tom Cotton and incumbent Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders both on the ballot. Polls in Arkansas open at 7:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m. The state is a key part of the South Central region where Democrats are looking to make gains. The Associated Press notes that more than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states, suggesting high engagement in these southern jurisdictions.

Louisiana voters are deciding on an open Senate seat, with polls opening at 6 a.m. on Tuesday and closing at 8 p.m. The state does not have a governor race on the ballot this cycle. The open Senate seat is part of the broader fight for the 33 regular Senate elections and two special elections. Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances, while Republicans are bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate. The Associated Press reports that one or two seats could tip the balance of either chamber.

The war with Iran has emerged as a significant issue for voters in the region and nationally. The Associated Press notes that about seven in 10 U.S. adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and most blame President Trump for high prices. In Texas and the surrounding South Central states, voters are weighing the cost of living against the administration's foreign policy decisions. This sentiment is reflected in the polling data, where only 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of President Trump's job performance, and 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy.

Money is playing a significant role in the 2026 elections, which are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees have outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. According to AP analysis of AdImpact data, 88.1 percent of Republican general election television ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, including more than 850 million dollars where he won by 10 points or more. This spending strategy highlights the Republican focus on defending their strongholds in the South.

Redistricting has also impacted the election landscape, with six states using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting. Texas is among these states, along with California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The new maps may affect which districts are considered battlegrounds. Ballotpedia counts 46 battleground districts in the House race, with 25 held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of three districts to achieve a majority in the House, while Republicans can lose no more than two.

Voters in the South Central states are also considering the implications of a Democratic victory for oversight and investigations. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight if his party gains control. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates, including Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, and could complicate the path of Vice President JD Vance.

As polls open, the U.S. Postal Service has added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, a move that critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters. The administration also sued in Alaska and California, leading Democrats to fear interference and intimidation as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. These administrative battles underscore the high stakes of the day's voting process.