World Series: Betting Markets Favor Brewers in Game 5
Milwaukee leads the series 3-1 after Tampa Bay won Game 4 in extra innings, and prediction markets price the Brewers as favorites to close out the championship.
By Robert Ward ·
The Milwaukee Brewers hold a 3-1 lead in the 2026 World Series following a four-game sweep of the first three contests, though the Tampa Bay Rays forced a deciding Game 5 by winning Tuesday night. The series returns to Milwaukee Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET, where the Brewers aim to secure their first championship in decades while the Rays attempt to extend their season.
Prediction markets on the platform Kalshi price the Brewers as the clear favorites to win Game 5. Shares for a Milwaukee victory are trading at $0.59, which implies a 59% probability of success. In contrast, shares for a Rays win are priced at $0.42, reflecting a 42% chance of victory. These figures align with the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates the matchup 10,000 times and projects a Milwaukee win in 56% of scenarios.
The Brewers' pitching advantage is a central factor in these odds. Jacob Misiorowski, the presumptive National League Cy Young Award winner, is scheduled to start Game 5 after a strong performance in Game 1. The Rays face a more difficult decision, as they will rely on ace Drew Rasmussen on short rest. Rasmussen struggled in Game 2, allowing three runs in three and two-thirds innings, and the Rays' bullpen has been heavily utilized throughout the series. Nick Martinez, originally slated to start, pitched out of the relief corps in Game 4.
The Rays' Game 4 victory was a defensive and baserunning effort that shifted the momentum. Ben Williamson provided the winning hit in extra innings, securing a 4-3 result that kept Tampa Bay alive. The Brewers have won two of the first three games by capitalizing on Rays miscues, maintaining a 10-2 record in the postseason. The Rays' ability to handle the pressure of a must-win situation on the road will determine if they can return to St. Petersburg for a potential Game 6.
Market participants also see a high likelihood of a high-scoring game. Shares for the teams to combine for more than 6.5 runs are trading at $0.50, while shares for 6.5 runs or fewer are priced at $0.51. The SportsLine model suggests the teams will exceed the 6.5-run threshold in approximately 70% of simulations. Games 2 through 4 all featured more than 6.5 total runs, indicating a trend of offensive production despite the pitching matchups.
The series is now at a critical juncture where the Brewers can close it out in their home stadium. A Milwaukee win would end the 2026 season for the Rays, while a Tampa Bay win would send the series back to their home field. The betting markets reflect confidence in the Brewers' overall performance and pitching depth, despite the Rays' recent resilience.
Source: CBS Sports
