Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short of Majority; Arab Parties Gain Historic 19 Seats

The final election results announced early Friday confirmed that the political bloc led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu no longer holds a majority in the Knesset. Netanyahu's camp secured 53 seats in Tuesday's vote, while the main opposition bloc won 48. The remaining 19 seats went to parties with Arab leadership, marking a historic result that now forces diverse factions into urgent negotiations. To form a governing coalition, any alliance must secure at least 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats.

Netanyahu, who holds the record for the longest tenure as prime minister, remains in office while the post-election scramble begins. Yair Lapid, a centrist politician, noted on social media that the difficult phase of the process is underway. He urged the public to exercise patience, stating that activity is occurring behind the current silence. The opposition now faces a strategic dilemma: either partner with the Arab-led parties, as campaigned for, or join forces with Netanyahu in a potentially fractious unity government.

Tensions rose in the hours before the official count, when Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified claims that Arab parties may have stolen the election with foreign assistance. The opposition accused Netanyahu of demonizing Israel's Arab population, which comprises 20% of the country and turned out to vote in record numbers. Many voters were motivated by frustration with Netanyahu's far-right allies, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose party lost seats. In his first public statement Friday, Netanyahu declared that forming a coalition with Arab parties was prohibited.

Noam Sohlberg, the head of Israel's electoral commission, reported that serious suspicions of foreign interference had been presented to him. He forwarded these claims to the Shin Bet security agency for investigation but noted that he could not verify them independently. Israeli media reported that members of Netanyahu's party pointed to Qatar, a nation often viewed as a backer of Hamas, as the potential source of interference. Qatar dismissed the accusations as ridiculous and dangerous. Dean Livne, the acting director general of the electoral committee, warned that media reports on the investigation were entirely unfounded and that the final results presented to the President would not change.

The results must be certified and delivered to President Isaac Herzog by next Wednesday. Herzog will then task a leader with forming the government, a role that could go to Netanyahu as the winner of the most votes, or to another figure deemed most viable by party leaders. If no government is formed after multiple attempts, Israel will return to the polls in early 2027. Herzog said this week that he intends to do everything in his power to avoid a repeat election. The Shin Bet stated its investigation does not aim to cast suspicion on the entire Arab population, which voted democratically and legally. The electoral committee requested the Shin Bet's findings within one week.

New Knesset members are expected to take office on November 10. Once in session, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot could team up with Arab parties to elect the new speaker of the house. This move would grant them control over the parliamentary agenda, allowing them to advance legislation before the new executive branch is established. If Netanyahu is removed from his post, it could trigger a cascade of events, including accountability for long-standing corruption charges and a likely inquiry into security failures prior to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Danny Elgarat, whose brother Itzik was a deceased hostage, spoke at a rally outside Eisenkot's home, urging a Jewish-Arab partnership and stating that Arabs of Israel are not a security danger.