Israel election exit polls show tight race with no clear winner

Voters in Israel went to the polls on Tuesday for a parliamentary election that many viewed as a direct challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the war in Gaza and rising tensions in the West Bank.

Late-night exit polls from Channel 12 projected that Netanyahu’s political bloc would win 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was projected to take 49 seats. Channel 13 reported a dead tie, with both blocs winning 51 seats. These unofficial indicators suggest that no single side is close to the 61-seat majority required to govern.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to be the largest single party with 27 seats, according to updated projections. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats. Arab parties are expected to collectively secure 19 seats, an increase from their performance in 2022. The voting system in Israel requires parties to form alliances after the election, a process that has never resulted in a single party holding a full majority on its own.

Eisenkot addressed his supporters at his party headquarters, declaring that the old era was over and that the public had voted for a new path. Netanyahu, speaking to his own supporters, claimed that Likud was the dominant force and that the right-wing bloc held a decisive majority. He also criticized the television channels, accusing them of projecting stronger results for the opposition to discourage his base from voting.

Far-right figures expressed confidence in their respective gains. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose party is projected to win seven seats, vowed to continue expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised his party’s results, noting that the party had not existed on the political landscape before. Democrats leader Yair Golan stated that voters had fired the government and pledged to work with partners to form a new administration.

Arab political leaders accused Netanyahu of using fear tactics to mobilize right-wing voters. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, said in a video that his party could end Netanyahu’s reign. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, called the prime minister’s comments a scare tactic. Netanyahu had posted on X that Arab voters were supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and stealing the elections, urging his base to vote in a matter of life and death.

The Central Elections Committee reported a turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. This represents a 7.1 percentage point increase from the 2022 election. Military turnout exceeded 68 percent by 5 pm, and more than 60,000 Israelis returned from abroad to vote. Polling stations closed at 10 pm, though those in line were permitted to cast ballots. Final results are expected by Friday, with official publication on November 4.