EU Chamber Chief Warns European Manufacturers May Quit Competing With China by 2030

Jens Eskelund, head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, warned that European manufacturers could stop trying to compete with Chinese rivals by the end of the decade. Speaking in Brussels, Eskelund said current trends point to an existential crossroads for the region's industrial base. He argued that if the status quo continues, Europe faces mass job losses and a collapse in its tax base.

The Danish businessman, who also manages Maersk’s Chinese operations, suggested a strategic pivot. Instead of viewing Chinese firms as rivals, European companies should aim to join their supply chains. Eskelund described this as a move from 'Made in China for China' to 'Made in China for the world.' He noted that many European firms are already adopting this approach to maintain global competitiveness.

The warning comes as the EU records a trade deficit with China of roughly 1.18 billion euros per day. Eskelund cited a Goldman Sachs report predicting that Chinese exports will lower the EU’s gross domestic product by 0.5% by 2030. Germany could see a reduction of up to 0.9%. These figures fuel a growing mood for protectionism in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.

The pressure is already visible in specific sectors. The German automotive industry faces reduced profits in China and fierce domestic competition from firms like BYD, Geely, and SAIC Motor. BMW recently reported a 22% drop in sales in China during the first nine months of the year. The company issued a second profit warning for 2026, citing suppressed domestic demand.

Eskelund rejected the term 'China shock 2.0.' He argued the impact was predictable because Beijing’s five-year plans since 2015 have consistently targeted import displacement. A recent report from the Centre for European Reform urged Germany to abandon its admiration for Beijing’s strategy. The report noted that China’s 2026 to 2030 plan doubles down on self-reliance in sectors such as AI, quantum computing, robotics, and 6G communications.

In his meetings with European Commission officials, Eskelund emphasized that Europe is at an inflection point. He advised leaders to engage with China to ensure trade creates value for both sides. He observed that China focuses on outcomes while Europe often prioritizes principles. He called the idea that increasing exports would fix the trade imbalance 'fantasy,' noting China’s surplus against the rest of the world is set to exceed the 2025 record of 1.2 trillion dollars.

Eskelund pointed to a currency undervalued by about 30% as a key factor in China's competitive advantage. He stated that in almost every industrial vertical, European firms now face one or several Chinese competitors. This environment makes traditional competition difficult. The chamber has found an uptick in confidence among its members over the past year as they explore joint partnerships and export opportunities.

The shift represents an evolution from servicing the local Chinese market to leveraging Chinese supply chains for global sales. Eskelund said this model allows European firms to compete on a worldwide stage. He stressed that becoming part of the Chinese supply chain is a practical adaptation to a saturated local market.