Eisenkot set for government mandate

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, is set to receive the first chance to form Israel’s next government. President Isaac Herzog will announce his decision on Sunday. Eisenkot holds endorsements from 67 lawmakers, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds 46.

Yashar won 21 seats in last month’s election, making it the largest party outside Netanyahu’s camp. Neither side of the political divide reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot’s four-party bloc holds 48 seats, leaving a deficit of 13 members for a stable coalition.

Once granted the mandate, Eisenkot has 28 days to negotiate a government. President Herzog can extend this period by 14 days. Eisenkot must find partners who can bridge the gap between his bloc and a working majority.

One path involves the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party. The party holds seven seats and declined to back either candidate during initial consultations. Its leaders tied support to changes in military conscription rules for Haredi men, including dropping sanctions against those who refuse to enlist. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, signaled willingness to compromise with Haredi parties on Friday. He rejected a minority government, a stance that would require Eisenkot to secure support from both United Torah Judaism and Shas. Shas endorsed Netanyahu, and its leader Aryeh Deri has a close relationship with the prime minister. The party has not indicated it will switch sides.

Cooperation with ultra-Orthodox parties conflicts with pre-election pledges by change-bloc leaders to exclude them from government. Military conscription was a central campaign issue. Dan Illouz, a lawmaker from Lieberman’s party, has already opposed concessions on conscription law. Eisenkot outlined a national emergency government model on Friday. Entry conditions include mandatory military or civilian service, recognition of Israel as Jewish and democratic, and the recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Another option involves Ra’am and the Joint List, which together won 19 seats. Ra’am joined the previous government in 2021. A potential arrangement would require active backing from Ra’am and abstention or outside support from the Joint List. Lieberman rejected any government dependent on Arab parties. Without his support, Eisenkot would need active backing from both parties. Eisenkot stated in September that neither party met his conditions for joining a government.

A unity coalition with Netanyahu remains a third possibility, though change-bloc leaders have rejected it since the election. Eisenkot, Lieberman, Yair Golan, and Naftali Bennett have all emphasized replacing Netanyahu. A unity deal would likely see Netanyahu remain prime minister initially under a rotation arrangement. If Eisenkot fails to form a government, another candidate may be considered, or new elections may be called. Netanyahu would remain prime minister if no new government is formed.