St. Johns River near Cocoa forecast to reach major flood stage

The St. Johns River near Cocoa is expected to rise above major flood stage next week, with a projected peak close to the level reached during Tropical Storm Fay in 2008. Although the rain has stopped, runoff from southern Brevard County continues to feed the river, leaving nearby residents and businesses facing the prospect of higher water.

In written responses to News 6 on Friday, November 6, the National Weather Service office in Melbourne forecast a crest of 17.1 feet around November 10 or 11. The river measured 16.9 feet at 8:15 a.m. Friday, just below the 17-foot major flood threshold. Repeated forecasts have increased confidence in the projected height, but the timing remains less certain. Forecasters cannot yet say when water will recede below major flood stage.

The predicted crest is only 1.2 inches below 17.2 feet, a level associated with water entering vulnerable homes around Lake Poinsett west of Cocoa, Silver Pines in Rockledge and Shakespeare Park in Cocoa. At 17 feet, water approaches low-lying homes in Silver Pines and structures along Pluckebaum Road. These readings describe river levels at the Cocoa gauge, not the depth of water on streets or inside properties.

At 17.2 feet, Providence Road west of Cocoa can also become impassable, potentially blocking access to homes around Mullet Lane and Bass Road. The current forecast remains below that level, and the listed flood impacts do not mean every identified property will flood. Officials advise vulnerable residents to follow changing conditions.

Flooding is already visible at Lone Cabbage Fish Camp on State Road 520, where water surrounds benches and tables, covers parts of the parking area and has risen nearly level with the docks. Longtime visitors Noah and Augie Walford described unusually high water compared with their previous visits. An employee identified as Carrie told News 6 that further rises could send water over the deck and affect the restaurant's operations.

The continued rise follows extreme rainfall in southern Brevard during the November 2 flooding event. Preliminary totals from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center included 24.69 inches near Malabar, 22 inches near Palm Bay and nearly 18 inches west-southwest of West Melbourne. Those measurements were taken in southern Brevard, not Cocoa. The weather service said runoff from West Melbourne and parts of Palm Bay drains into the north-flowing St. Johns, allowing downstream levels to rise days after rainfall ends.

The forecast crest would be just 0.01 feet below the 17.11-foot peak recorded at Cocoa during Tropical Storm Fay. Unlike that 2008 event, the current flooding did not follow rainfall from a named tropical system. In its Friday response, the Melbourne weather service office said no additional rain was forecast for the affected area over the following seven days.

Brevard County is offering residents a way to request free volunteer cleanup assistance through an official online form. Partner organizations may help remove mud, debris, damaged furniture, flooring and drywall, depending on availability and community needs. On Friday afternoon, emergency management officials said damage assessments would be compiled into a disaster declaration request to the state. Federal disaster assistance had not been approved through that announcement.

County officials urge residents to avoid floodwater, which may contain sewage, chemicals and dangerous debris, and never drive through flooded roads. They also recommend protective clothing during cleanup and caution against contractor scams. Residents can receive county emergency text alerts by texting BREVARDEOC to 888777.