£400m: The Gap in UK Aid Spending by 2027

Britain’s international aid budget is on track to fall short of its 2027 spending target by an estimated £400m, a new analysis from the Center for Global Development (CGD) has found. The researchers determined that the central Treasury forecast implies 2027 aid spending will be £410m lower than planned, reducing the share of national income devoted to aid to 0.29%. The CGD noted that a £580m shortfall is a plausible outcome, while even the most conservative estimate suggests a £250m gap. These figures indicate a material reduction in the spending power of UK aid programmes.

The path to this projected deficit began with a shift in government strategy. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the aid target from 0.7% of national income, as promised in Labour’s election manifesto, to 0.3% by 2027. This reduction was intended to free up funds for defence spending. The original 0.7% commitment represented a long-standing international benchmark for development assistance.

Two specific factors now threaten to widen the gap between the target and actual spending. Inflation has run higher than expected, meaning national income will be larger than it was when the spending review was conducted. Because the aid target is a percentage of national income, a larger income base requires a larger absolute sum to meet the same percentage. Additionally, a 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) contributed to the downward trajectory. The CGD attributes the combined effect of these variables to the projected shortfall.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, described the findings as material shortfalls in spending power. He stated that closing a £400m gap would be sufficient to halve the planned cuts to Africa. Mitchell warned that these reductions are likely to cost thousands of lives and constitute a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent. The organization urged ministers to address the gap in this week’s budget to avoid criticism for missing a target set by the government itself.

Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, argued that hitting the reduced target is a minimum requirement for the current administration. "I'd like to see this government going further and reversing these cuts altogether in time, but at the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set," she said. Anderson emphasized that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones.

Charities have warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and increase disease risk in African countries. Data released by the FCDO in September showed that cuts under the current government disproportionately affect the world's poorest nations. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118m. The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, a decrease of £987m from the 0.5% recorded in 2024.

The government has responded by prioritizing funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi, the global vaccines initiative. It has also maintained humanitarian support levels. An FCDO spokesperson noted that multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set spending plans for the next three financial years based on income figures from the 2025 spending review. "Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes," the spokesperson said.

The opposition continues to push for deeper cuts. The Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to reduce annual aid spending from approximately £9bn to £1bn. At that level, the UK would be unable to cover its existing contributions to the United Nations and the World Bank. The next budget is scheduled for release this week, where ministers will decide whether to adjust the aid envelope.